Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.8% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -1.8% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -7.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
WMT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WMT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WMT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.94% | 7.39% | -2.67% | 6.16% | -12.10% | -2.15% | -1.82% | -5.47% | 5.40% | |||
| 2025 | 8.64% | 0.46% | -10.73% | 10.78% | 1.76% | -0.95% | 0.20% | -0.79% | 6.27% | -1.82% | 9.22% | 1.02% |
| 2024 | 4.82% | 6.40% | 3.01% | -1.36% | 11.18% | 2.97% | 1.37% | 12.84% | 4.56% | 1.49% | 12.87% | -2.11% |
| 2023 | 1.47% | -1.21% | 4.17% | 2.39% | -2.35% | 7.02% | 1.71% | 2.08% | -1.65% | 2.18% | -4.72% | 1.64% |
| 2022 | -3.37% | -3.33% | 10.61% | 2.73% | -15.62% | -5.48% | 8.61% | 0.82% | -2.15% | 9.74% | 7.09% | -6.62% |
| 2021 | -2.54% | -7.52% | 4.99% | 3.00% | 1.91% | -0.71% | 1.08% | 4.28% | -5.89% | 7.20% | -5.88% | 3.30% |
| 2020 | -5.95% | 5.98% | 6.98% | 2.51% | -3.45% | 8.03% | 7.74% | 0.76% | -0.83% | 10.12% | -5.31% | |
| Avg | 2.66% | -0.54% | 2.19% | 4.38% | -1.81% | -0.39% | 2.74% | 3.07% | 0.32% | 2.99% | 4.78% | -1.35% |
WMT Distribution of Daily % Changes