Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.5% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.2% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.2% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -27.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
WFC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
WFC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
WFC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.91% | -9.55% | -2.26% | 3.29% | -5.16% | 6.58% | 4.61% | 0.50% | -5.20% | |||
| 2025 | 12.19% | -0.12% | -8.34% | -1.09% | 5.89% | 7.14% | 0.64% | 2.52% | 2.00% | 3.76% | -0.77% | 8.56% |
| 2024 | 1.95% | 11.56% | 4.26% | 2.35% | 1.59% | -0.88% | -0.08% | -0.71% | -3.39% | 14.92% | 18.01% | -7.79% |
| 2023 | 13.51% | 0.42% | -20.08% | 6.34% | 0.93% | 7.21% | 8.15% | -9.85% | -1.04% | -2.67% | 13.12% | 10.38% |
| 2022 | 12.13% | -0.35% | -9.20% | -9.97% | 5.48% | -14.42% | 12.00% | 0.32% | -7.98% | 14.35% | 4.93% | -13.89% |
| 2021 | -0.99% | 21.43% | 8.02% | 15.31% | 3.93% | -3.06% | 1.44% | -0.09% | 1.55% | 10.23% | -6.25% | 0.42% |
| 2020 | -12.05% | -29.74% | 1.22% | -7.03% | -3.29% | -5.23% | -0.04% | -2.65% | -8.76% | 28.09% | 10.35% | |
| Avg | 5.98% | 1.62% | -8.19% | 2.49% | 0.80% | -0.10% | 3.07% | -1.05% | -1.92% | 5.31% | 9.52% | 1.34% |
WFC Distribution of Daily % Changes