Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.8% with only a 0% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.6% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -1.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
V - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
V - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
V Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
V Distribution of Daily % Changes
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -8.23% | -0.32% | -5.59% | 9.13% | -0.85% | 5.13% | 6.72% | -0.36% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.15% | 6.30% | -3.38% | -1.42% | 5.87% | -2.78% | -2.70% | 2.01% | -2.96% | -0.19% | -1.65% | 4.86% |
| 2024 | 4.96% | 3.63% | -1.26% | -3.75% | 1.62% | -3.67% | 1.22% | 4.24% | -0.51% | 5.42% | 8.91% | 0.30% |
| 2023 | 10.81% | -4.27% | 2.51% | 3.22% | -4.84% | 7.44% | 0.11% | 3.54% | -6.38% | 2.21% | 9.41% | 1.43% |
| 2022 | 4.37% | -4.29% | 2.61% | -3.90% | -0.26% | -7.20% | 7.73% | -6.15% | -10.60% | 16.61% | 4.98% | -4.26% |
| 2021 | -11.65% | 10.07% | -0.31% | 10.31% | -2.54% | 2.87% | 5.38% | -6.89% | -2.77% | -4.93% | -8.34% | 11.84% |
| 2020 | -8.52% | -11.36% | 10.92% | 9.43% | -1.06% | -1.43% | 11.51% | -5.67% | -9.13% | 15.94% | 3.98% | |
| Avg | 1.40% | 0.37% | -2.40% | 3.50% | 1.20% | 0.10% | 2.43% | 1.37% | -4.81% | 1.67% | 4.87% | 3.03% |