Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.7% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +27.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.15% | -2.58% | -3.87% | 8.94% | -3.19% | 11.06% | 4.32% | 3.82% | ||||
| 2025 | -0.10% | -1.84% | -8.90% | -4.45% | 8.06% | 4.96% | -0.64% | 8.61% | 0.04% | -3.41% | 5.08% | 9.84% |
| 2024 | -4.02% | 1.01% | 7.74% | -9.11% | -0.20% | -0.87% | 13.05% | 5.24% | -2.10% | 5.64% | 10.31% | -9.31% |
| 2023 | 14.19% | -4.16% | -23.46% | -4.91% | -12.78% | 12.17% | 20.10% | -7.94% | -8.14% | -3.57% | 19.57% | 14.82% |
| 2022 | 3.60% | -2.84% | -5.23% | -8.64% | 9.29% | -12.43% | 2.56% | -3.37% | -10.56% | 5.28% | 6.93% | -2.85% |
| 2021 | -8.03% | 16.69% | 11.46% | 7.30% | 2.41% | -5.58% | -2.51% | 3.33% | 4.37% | 1.56% | -8.33% | 2.33% |
| 2020 | -12.74% | -24.94% | 5.95% | -2.58% | 4.76% | 0.05% | -1.19% | -0.35% | 8.65% | 10.94% | 8.81% | |
| Avg | 1.80% | -0.92% | -6.74% | -0.70% | 0.14% | 2.01% | 5.28% | 0.78% | -2.79% | 2.36% | 7.42% | 3.94% |
USB - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
USB Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
USB Distribution of Daily % Changes
USB - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data