Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.08% | 2.21% | -7.02% | 36.92% | 2.65% | 9.91% | -0.30% | -3.06% | ||||
| 2025 | 7.24% | -12.45% | 10.74% | -21.44% | -26.62% | 4.07% | -20.01% | 24.17% | 12.14% | -1.08% | -3.45% | 0.78% |
| 2024 | -2.80% | -3.54% | 0.62% | -2.22% | 2.41% | 3.24% | 13.14% | 2.44% | -0.58% | -3.45% | 8.10% | -16.78% |
| 2023 | -5.85% | -4.66% | -0.35% | 4.13% | -0.99% | -0.95% | 5.35% | -5.88% | 6.21% | 6.22% | 3.25% | -4.47% |
| 2022 | -5.89% | 0.70% | 7.48% | -0.28% | -2.31% | 3.76% | 5.59% | -4.24% | -2.45% | 9.92% | -1.33% | -2.91% |
| 2021 | -4.88% | -0.41% | 12.39% | 7.18% | 3.29% | -2.43% | 2.94% | 0.98% | -5.80% | 17.85% | -3.53% | 13.41% |
| 2020 | -6.42% | -1.76% | 17.28% | 4.23% | -2.83% | 2.65% | 3.23% | 0.16% | -2.13% | 10.22% | 4.64% | |
| Avg | -4.21% | -3.51% | 3.16% | 5.94% | -2.48% | 2.11% | 1.34% | 3.45% | 1.61% | 4.55% | 2.21% | -0.89% |
UNH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Apr is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Apr averages +5.9% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -4.2% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q3 (Jul–Aug–Sep) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q3 combine for a +6.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.6% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +28.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
UNH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
UNH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
UNH Distribution of Daily % Changes