Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.00% | 5.78% | -23.67% | 2.83% | -5.33% | -11.37% | 13.71% | -0.41% | ||||
| 2025 | -5.24% | -11.11% | 0.05% | 7.94% | 19.16% | -0.77% | 10.09% | -4.33% | 10.96% | -4.91% | 3.65% | 12.28% |
| 2024 | 2.46% | 9.26% | -4.68% | -22.57% | -2.41% | -2.33% | -5.44% | -3.30% | 10.28% | -5.18% | 4.79% | 12.49% |
| 2023 | 9.57% | 0.94% | 5.18% | 1.06% | -25.68% | 14.83% | -5.48% | -6.69% | -3.75% | -4.54% | 11.72% | 15.02% |
| 2022 | -11.79% | 2.96% | 6.33% | -0.36% | 6.63% | -8.89% | 0.89% | 7.96% | -4.45% | 4.53% | 10.84% | 0.91% |
| 2021 | -2.58% | 15.22% | -4.08% | 6.53% | 4.86% | 0.12% | -2.88% | 15.34% | -6.81% | 1.78% | 4.52% | 7.39% |
| 2020 | -4.04% | -31.66% | 24.03% | 11.97% | -16.63% | -5.13% | 20.31% | -3.53% | -7.68% | 33.19% | 4.27% | |
| Avg | -0.10% | 2.72% | -7.50% | 2.78% | 1.32% | -3.58% | 0.82% | 4.88% | 0.45% | -2.67% | 11.45% | 8.73% |
ULTA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ULTA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
ULTA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ULTA Distribution of Daily % Changes