Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jan shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jan averages -4.7% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -6.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -25.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.63% | -3.98% | -3.47% | -0.36% | -8.20% | -6.61% | 5.86% | 6.15% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.34% | 1.13% | -4.44% | -6.55% | 6.20% | 2.75% | -1.40% | -3.71% | -7.06% | -8.96% | -1.39% | -3.34% |
| 2024 | 1.11% | 3.40% | -2.77% | 8.60% | 4.08% | 4.67% | 12.99% | 3.48% | -0.71% | 3.75% | 3.89% | -8.35% |
| 2023 | 0.11% | -0.47% | 10.39% | 6.88% | 4.73% | 4.91% | -4.76% | 0.45% | -3.08% | -3.43% | 9.64% | 2.27% |
| 2022 | -11.92% | -9.61% | 3.88% | -11.28% | -9.85% | -6.56% | 20.01% | -6.89% | -6.46% | -6.96% | 6.00% | -5.93% |
| 2021 | -3.15% | 9.61% | -8.39% | 0.08% | -5.11% | 12.21% | 8.90% | -1.41% | -5.57% | 18.44% | -4.46% | 3.66% |
| 2020 | -3.19% | -5.36% | 8.14% | 17.03% | -7.58% | 2.99% | -3.34% | 0.94% | 10.28% | 11.24% | 2.09% | |
| Avg | -4.69% | -0.44% | -1.45% | 0.79% | 1.27% | 0.54% | 6.37% | -1.90% | -3.66% | 2.19% | 4.15% | -1.60% |
TYL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TYL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TYL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TYL Distribution of Daily % Changes