Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +20.0% with a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.4% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +21.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 204 of the year, the current YTD return is +92.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
TWLO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15.31% | 0.42% | 4.02% | 17.68% | 28.76% | 8.23% | -4.35% | 19.40% | 24.12% | -10.49% | ||
| 2025 | 35.62% | -18.18% | -18.36% | -1.23% | 21.70% | 5.66% | 3.73% | -18.13% | -5.23% | 34.76% | -3.85% | 9.68% |
| 2024 | -7.30% | -15.27% | 2.62% | -2.08% | -4.14% | -1.03% | 4.08% | 6.14% | 3.92% | 23.66% | 29.62% | 3.39% |
| 2023 | 22.22% | 12.32% | -0.86% | -21.04% | 32.33% | -8.62% | 3.79% | -3.51% | -8.13% | -12.42% | 26.18% | 17.30% |
| 2022 | -21.73% | -15.20% | -5.72% | -32.15% | -5.95% | -20.31% | 1.18% | -17.95% | -0.63% | 7.56% | -34.09% | -0.12% |
| 2021 | 6.18% | 9.31% | -13.27% | 7.94% | -8.65% | 17.31% | -5.22% | -4.45% | -10.62% | -8.68% | -1.79% | -7.97% |
| 2020 | -9.41% | -20.55% | 25.49% | 75.96% | 11.04% | 26.43% | -2.76% | -8.40% | 12.90% | 14.74% | 5.75% | |
| Avg | 3.28% | -5.15% | -7.45% | -0.77% | 20.00% | 1.75% | 4.24% | -3.04% | -0.71% | 9.63% | 5.14% | 4.67% |
TWLO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TWLO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TWLO Distribution of Daily % Changes