Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -13.96% | -4.00% | -6.61% | 8.23% | 4.87% | 11.52% | -2.82% | 1.66% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.78% | 14.27% | -2.23% | 12.58% | -3.02% | 7.32% | -8.29% | 4.73% | 10.76% | -0.77% | -4.02% | 4.05% |
| 2024 | 2.47% | -10.91% | 1.06% | -3.83% | 12.29% | -3.04% | -3.19% | 7.43% | -4.95% | 5.21% | 16.49% | -2.28% |
| 2023 | 8.74% | -3.25% | 8.90% | 4.18% | 10.81% | 6.85% | 3.93% | -7.02% | -1.27% | -4.73% | 18.28% | 1.74% |
| 2022 | -8.09% | -0.82% | -5.10% | -22.26% | 4.20% | -1.61% | 8.32% | -7.66% | -11.06% | 8.70% | -10.80% | -1.48% |
| 2021 | -3.53% | -7.98% | -4.21% | -0.75% | 5.80% | -4.60% | -2.03% | -7.03% | -4.43% | 17.48% | -8.35% | 7.14% |
| 2020 | -13.77% | 10.36% | 2.06% | 12.49% | 2.50% | 17.52% | 4.37% | -3.49% | -6.23% | 16.52% | 15.11% | |
| Avg | -2.27% | -3.78% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 6.78% | 2.71% | 1.92% | -0.86% | -2.41% | 3.28% | 4.69% | 4.05% |
May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +6.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -3.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +12.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -6.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
TTWO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TTWO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TTWO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TTWO Distribution of Daily % Changes