Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.7% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.8% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
TSN - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.45% | 0.28% | -1.42% | 0.00% | -4.76% | -5.39% | 1.24% | 0.36% | ||||
| 2025 | -1.65% | 9.48% | 4.03% | -4.03% | -7.47% | -0.39% | -6.51% | 9.54% | -4.37% | -5.32% | 12.92% | 1.88% |
| 2024 | 1.88% | -0.04% | 8.28% | 3.27% | -4.79% | -0.19% | 6.58% | 6.41% | -7.39% | -1.63% | 10.95% | -10.95% |
| 2023 | 5.62% | -9.18% | 0.14% | 5.34% | -18.21% | 0.79% | 9.17% | -3.55% | -5.22% | -8.20% | 2.12% | 14.75% |
| 2022 | 4.28% | 2.45% | -3.27% | 3.94% | -3.32% | -3.96% | 2.27% | -13.83% | -12.54% | 3.67% | -2.32% | -6.08% |
| 2021 | -0.20% | 5.91% | 9.80% | 4.24% | 3.22% | -7.22% | -3.12% | 10.51% | 0.53% | 1.30% | -0.71% | 10.38% |
| 2020 | -17.42% | -14.68% | 7.46% | -0.54% | -2.82% | 2.91% | 2.87% | -5.29% | -3.78% | 14.71% | -1.17% | |
| Avg | 3.56% | -1.22% | 0.41% | 2.89% | -5.12% | -2.74% | 1.79% | 1.99% | -5.71% | -2.33% | 6.28% | 1.47% |
TSN - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TSN Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TSN Distribution of Daily % Changes