Seasonality
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TRI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.8% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +4.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -27.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.12% | -12.19% | -6.67% | 6.35% | -7.50% | -5.59% | 20.15% | 5.58% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.91% | 6.65% | -3.38% | 7.64% | 7.16% | 1.25% | -0.11% | -11.29% | -12.54% | -1.46% | -11.13% | -2.61% |
| 2024 | 1.64% | 6.53% | -1.24% | -3.04% | 14.27% | -2.06% | -3.94% | 6.06% | -0.34% | -4.08% | -0.31% | -1.36% |
| 2023 | 4.30% | 2.14% | 7.51% | 1.07% | -2.91% | 5.96% | 0.21% | -4.41% | -5.02% | -1.99% | 17.14% | 4.51% |
| 2022 | -10.25% | -5.45% | 7.72% | -8.17% | -0.46% | 5.22% | 7.74% | -1.64% | -6.73% | 3.57% | 11.21% | -3.10% |
| 2021 | -0.42% | 6.55% | 1.25% | 5.87% | 6.13% | 1.38% | 6.72% | 10.64% | -5.46% | 8.92% | -0.31% | 0.05% |
| 2020 | -7.29% | -8.44% | 3.91% | -3.93% | 0.91% | 2.75% | 9.90% | 4.45% | -2.41% | 2.38% | 3.23% | |
| Avg | -2.66% | -0.44% | -0.46% | 1.95% | 1.82% | 1.01% | 4.79% | 1.55% | -4.27% | 0.42% | 3.16% | 0.12% |
TRI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TRI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TRI Distribution of Daily % Changes