Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.9% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -11.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +33.6% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +6.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -27.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
TPR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TPR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TPR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.67% | 22.50% | -8.99% | 2.79% | 0.29% | 0.92% | 4.09% | -19.02% | -10.10% | |||
| 2025 | 11.65% | 17.11% | -17.22% | 0.34% | 11.18% | 12.28% | 23.03% | -5.75% | 11.62% | -3.00% | -0.49% | 17.33% |
| 2024 | 5.38% | 22.53% | 0.64% | -15.92% | 8.94% | -0.81% | -6.31% | 2.20% | 15.65% | 1.00% | 31.25% | 5.48% |
| 2023 | 19.67% | -4.52% | -0.23% | -5.34% | -1.94% | 7.69% | 0.82% | -22.78% | -12.78% | -4.14% | 14.91% | 17.49% |
| 2022 | -6.53% | 7.77% | -8.62% | -11.39% | 4.80% | -10.88% | 10.19% | 3.27% | -17.42% | 11.43% | 19.22% | 1.65% |
| 2021 | 1.74% | 33.27% | -2.21% | 16.11% | -6.19% | -3.14% | -2.71% | -4.68% | -7.62% | 5.29% | 2.92% | 1.85% |
| 2020 | -9.00% | -44.00% | 14.90% | -8.60% | -2.35% | 0.60% | 10.25% | 6.11% | 42.23% | 27.40% | 9.75% | |
| Avg | 5.21% | 12.81% | -11.52% | 0.21% | 1.21% | 0.53% | 4.24% | -5.22% | -0.74% | 8.80% | 15.87% | 8.92% |
TPR Distribution of Daily % Changes