Seasonality
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Feb is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Feb averages +13.3% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +18.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +16.7% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
TPL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.29% | 50.50% | -9.38% | -6.51% | -11.42% | 11.53% | -8.01% | -7.01% | -10.17% | |||
| 2025 | 17.29% | 10.08% | -7.11% | -2.73% | -13.57% | -5.04% | -8.35% | -3.58% | 0.19% | 1.04% | -8.38% | -0.12% |
| 2024 | -7.07% | 8.05% | 10.16% | -0.38% | 6.60% | 19.76% | 16.66% | 2.84% | 1.96% | 31.79% | 37.23% | -30.81% |
| 2023 | -14.86% | -10.81% | -4.28% | -13.13% | -11.77% | 1.22% | 14.42% | 25.33% | -3.25% | 1.23% | -9.25% | -5.95% |
| 2022 | -13.92% | 10.58% | 14.01% | 1.07% | 14.59% | -3.66% | 23.24% | 0.36% | -3.28% | 29.63% | 12.53% | -9.47% |
| 2021 | 14.48% | 32.66% | 44.30% | -3.10% | -5.65% | 10.29% | -6.70% | -8.90% | -10.87% | 5.32% | -5.10% | 3.54% |
| 2020 | -7.93% | -44.02% | 49.90% | 2.94% | 1.42% | -10.38% | -1.18% | -14.27% | -0.25% | 35.41% | 20.97% | |
| Avg | 2.87% | 13.31% | 0.53% | 3.59% | -2.61% | 5.07% | 2.98% | 1.12% | -4.92% | 11.46% | 10.41% | -3.64% |
TPL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TPL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TPL Distribution of Daily % Changes