Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +8.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jul shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jul averages -2.3% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +14.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.7% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -32.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
TKO - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.07% | 10.51% | -9.56% | -7.72% | 10.26% | -1.50% | -9.69% | 10.71% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.22% | -2.94% | 1.71% | 6.61% | -3.13% | 15.56% | -7.66% | 12.83% | 6.94% | -6.71% | 2.91% | 8.20% |
| 2024 | 2.59% | 0.05% | 3.20% | 9.56% | 15.21% | -0.99% | 1.26% | 8.12% | 4.63% | -5.61% | 18.15% | 3.01% |
| 2023 | 23.50% | -0.73% | 8.81% | 17.43% | -5.46% | 7.18% | -3.20% | -8.05% | -9.60% | -2.47% | -5.67% | 5.50% |
| 2022 | 1.22% | 18.66% | 5.59% | -6.49% | 14.35% | -6.23% | 10.91% | -1.88% | 3.36% | 12.43% | 1.25% | -14.08% |
| 2021 | 17.23% | -12.30% | 10.06% | 1.57% | 1.32% | 3.87% | -14.70% | 5.53% | 8.20% | 8.59% | -19.20% | 0.21% |
| 2020 | -4.32% | -27.23% | 31.06% | 4.05% | -5.84% | 7.27% | -5.45% | -7.90% | -10.16% | 18.37% | 11.94% | |
| Avg | 8.45% | 1.27% | -1.06% | 7.43% | 5.23% | 1.72% | -2.26% | 1.85% | 0.94% | -0.66% | 2.64% | 2.46% |
TKO - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TKO Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TKO Distribution of Daily % Changes