Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +10.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.9% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.7% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.3% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -0.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
TJX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.47% | 8.22% | -1.21% | -1.85% | -0.95% | -2.10% | 3.85% | -3.02% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.29% | 0.28% | -2.37% | 5.65% | -1.06% | -2.69% | 0.84% | 10.05% | 5.80% | -3.04% | 8.72% | 1.11% |
| 2024 | 1.17% | 4.81% | 2.30% | -7.23% | 9.99% | 6.79% | 2.65% | 4.12% | 0.23% | -3.84% | 11.55% | -3.88% |
| 2023 | 2.84% | -6.08% | 2.30% | 0.59% | -2.16% | 10.42% | 2.05% | 7.29% | -3.89% | -0.91% | 0.41% | 6.47% |
| 2022 | -5.20% | -7.82% | -8.35% | 1.16% | 4.28% | -12.14% | 9.51% | 2.43% | -0.37% | 16.07% | 11.49% | -0.56% |
| 2021 | -6.22% | 3.43% | 0.24% | 7.33% | -4.53% | -0.18% | 2.06% | 6.07% | -9.27% | -0.74% | 6.37% | 9.39% |
| 2020 | 1.66% | -20.05% | 2.59% | 7.56% | -4.17% | 2.83% | 5.39% | 1.57% | -8.72% | 25.02% | 7.53% | |
| Avg | -1.10% | 0.64% | -3.88% | 1.18% | 1.88% | -0.58% | 3.40% | 5.89% | -0.99% | -0.20% | 10.59% | 3.34% |
TJX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TJX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TJX Distribution of Daily % Changes