Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.90% | 8.99% | 6.51% | 7.05% | -1.14% | 2.79% | 10.63% | 7.73% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.02% | -9.14% | -16.00% | -7.34% | -1.67% | 4.94% | 1.88% | -3.46% | -6.54% | 3.37% | -1.03% | 7.87% |
| 2024 | -2.35% | 10.77% | 15.88% | -9.16% | -2.33% | -5.20% | 1.60% | 2.93% | 1.46% | -3.73% | -11.18% | 2.17% |
| 2023 | 15.50% | -1.50% | -1.70% | -4.76% | -16.44% | 0.74% | 3.46% | -6.47% | -12.63% | 0.20% | 22.03% | 6.43% |
| 2022 | -4.76% | -8.98% | 6.23% | 7.74% | -28.91% | -12.76% | 15.68% | -1.25% | -7.45% | 10.69% | 2.35% | -10.79% |
| 2021 | 2.63% | 1.61% | 7.98% | 4.64% | 9.84% | 6.53% | 7.99% | -5.07% | -7.37% | 13.49% | -5.76% | -5.09% |
| 2020 | -6.46% | -9.74% | 18.04% | 12.06% | -1.96% | 4.96% | 20.72% | 4.11% | -3.30% | 18.43% | -1.67% | |
| Avg | 3.49% | -0.67% | 1.31% | 2.32% | -4.08% | -0.70% | 6.60% | 1.23% | -4.74% | 3.45% | 4.14% | -0.18% |
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +6.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -4.7% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.1% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +64.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
TGT - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TGT - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TGT Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TGT Distribution of Daily % Changes