Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.49% | -3.14% | -6.77% | 12.03% | -5.40% | 3.34% | 4.05% | 3.45% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.77% | -1.57% | -11.22% | -6.83% | 4.40% | 8.84% | 1.67% | 8.43% | -2.35% | -2.38% | 5.40% | 5.83% |
| 2024 | 0.38% | -4.23% | 11.44% | -3.67% | 1.88% | 2.91% | 15.03% | 0.73% | -3.80% | 0.65% | 12.02% | -9.02% |
| 2023 | 14.78% | -3.93% | -27.37% | -4.46% | -4.70% | -0.39% | 9.46% | -6.49% | -6.35% | -0.87% | 15.30% | 14.87% |
| 2022 | 7.29% | -0.22% | -8.87% | -14.73% | 3.94% | -4.64% | 6.41% | -6.23% | -7.05% | 2.87% | 5.75% | -8.08% |
| 2021 | 0.10% | 19.72% | 2.39% | 1.70% | 4.96% | -10.17% | -1.93% | 5.69% | 2.79% | 8.22% | -5.86% | -1.28% |
| 2020 | -9.78% | -33.16% | 21.01% | -0.02% | 2.09% | -0.24% | 4.76% | -1.96% | 10.70% | 11.23% | 3.25% | |
| Avg | 6.14% | -0.45% | -10.51% | 0.72% | 0.72% | 0.28% | 4.92% | 1.15% | -3.12% | 3.20% | 7.31% | 0.93% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.3% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -10.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -4.8% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +13.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
TFC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TFC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TFC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TFC Distribution of Daily % Changes