Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -14.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
TEL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TEL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TEL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.08% | 3.62% | -9.18% | 1.26% | 1.22% | -5.53% | 2.02% | 0.18% | 4.45% | |||
| 2025 | 3.50% | 4.53% | -8.25% | 3.58% | 9.83% | 5.37% | 21.98% | 0.72% | 6.31% | 12.52% | -8.45% | 0.60% |
| 2024 | 1.20% | 1.38% | 1.17% | -2.59% | 6.27% | 0.49% | 2.59% | -0.04% | -1.70% | -2.36% | 2.95% | -5.39% |
| 2023 | 10.76% | 0.56% | 3.01% | -6.69% | 0.58% | 14.44% | 2.38% | -7.31% | -6.69% | -4.60% | 11.66% | 7.25% |
| 2022 | -11.36% | -0.07% | -8.04% | -4.73% | 4.17% | -12.55% | 18.19% | -5.23% | -12.56% | 10.76% | 3.64% | -8.98% |
| 2021 | -0.55% | 8.40% | -0.71% | 4.15% | 1.28% | -0.35% | 9.07% | 2.21% | -8.65% | 6.40% | 5.75% | 4.81% |
| 2020 | -9.65% | -24.00% | 16.64% | 11.29% | 0.37% | 9.22% | 9.01% | 1.18% | -0.88% | 18.15% | 6.23% | |
| Avg | 0.24% | 1.25% | -6.57% | 1.66% | 4.95% | 0.32% | 9.35% | -0.07% | -3.69% | 3.64% | 5.62% | 0.75% |
TEL Distribution of Daily % Changes