Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -5.4% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +25.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.98% | -7.82% | -11.42% | 5.86% | -6.41% | 36.71% | 2.04% | 0.43% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.11% | -15.94% | -5.05% | -14.12% | -3.72% | 6.30% | 6.38% | -0.03% | 1.83% | 12.48% | 3.24% | -8.84% |
| 2024 | -8.86% | 4.75% | -4.32% | -10.20% | 22.24% | -7.18% | 13.87% | -9.22% | 8.03% | -7.73% | 2.29% | -4.42% |
| 2023 | -3.89% | -8.72% | 2.13% | 7.67% | 2.49% | -0.20% | 2.17% | -5.90% | -13.18% | -19.74% | 15.30% | 22.67% |
| 2022 | -27.24% | 11.51% | 3.25% | -12.32% | -2.53% | -6.25% | 11.15% | -13.80% | -14.41% | 4.32% | 14.87% | -2.48% |
| 2021 | 2.32% | 11.41% | 5.60% | 11.93% | -3.12% | 8.80% | 7.10% | 3.58% | -2.92% | 8.06% | -9.80% | 9.60% |
| 2020 | -9.90% | 0.39% | 18.66% | 17.83% | -0.28% | 4.20% | -7.05% | -3.03% | 1.89% | 20.29% | 4.69% | |
| Avg | -4.43% | -2.10% | -1.35% | 1.07% | 3.83% | 5.42% | 6.70% | -5.40% | -3.95% | -0.12% | 7.70% | 3.54% |
TECH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TECH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TECH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TECH Distribution of Daily % Changes