Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.45% | 9.80% | -11.17% | 6.75% | -4.03% | 7.59% | -1.70% | 3.68% | ||||
| 2025 | 10.17% | 0.72% | -3.36% | -6.37% | 7.04% | 2.70% | 7.56% | -2.33% | 8.89% | -10.11% | -5.18% | 2.24% |
| 2024 | -6.23% | 2.10% | 0.48% | -11.14% | 4.06% | -2.26% | 8.73% | 2.59% | 1.12% | 4.04% | 6.58% | -4.35% |
| 2023 | 6.09% | 1.37% | 4.02% | -7.37% | -6.21% | 5.78% | -6.47% | 8.78% | -2.32% | -8.32% | 7.57% | 10.75% |
| 2022 | -3.54% | 1.89% | 10.07% | -8.69% | -6.12% | -7.41% | 4.34% | -5.89% | -8.39% | 17.93% | 5.56% | -4.81% |
| 2021 | -8.92% | 3.92% | 11.50% | 8.24% | -6.32% | -0.15% | 8.10% | 2.34% | -7.29% | 4.57% | -7.55% | 5.20% |
| 2020 | -7.60% | -11.87% | 9.55% | 14.88% | -16.89% | -1.37% | 2.25% | -1.08% | -0.34% | 22.25% | 3.71% | |
| Avg | 3.17% | 1.74% | -0.05% | -1.29% | 0.47% | -1.52% | 2.74% | 1.29% | -1.51% | 1.30% | 4.87% | 2.13% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +4.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -1.5% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +29.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
TDY - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TDY - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TDY Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TDY Distribution of Daily % Changes