Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.3% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -7.0% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -24.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.35% | -8.74% | -11.04% | 0.09% | 8.48% | 5.86% | -5.83% | 0.20% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.79% | 1.02% | 1.18% | 2.15% | 3.92% | 3.56% | 5.78% | -13.03% | 0.70% | -0.72% | 3.95% | -2.23% |
| 2024 | 8.02% | 7.78% | 4.57% | 1.33% | 7.63% | -4.89% | 1.30% | 6.10% | 3.93% | -3.65% | -3.79% | 1.14% |
| 2023 | 13.99% | 3.64% | -0.92% | 3.79% | 1.13% | 15.58% | 0.62% | 0.46% | -6.72% | -1.78% | 20.55% | 5.06% |
| 2022 | -3.16% | 8.18% | -2.26% | -8.71% | 1.78% | -11.35% | 15.96% | -0.78% | -12.59% | 9.71% | 9.16% | 0.18% |
| 2021 | -10.60% | 4.23% | 1.95% | 4.39% | 5.72% | -0.24% | -0.96% | -5.24% | 2.81% | -0.12% | -7.34% | 10.07% |
| 2020 | -13.29% | -42.60% | 13.40% | 17.00% | 4.06% | -2.37% | 15.78% | -4.91% | 0.48% | 21.32% | 6.85% | |
| Avg | 3.73% | 0.40% | -7.02% | 2.35% | 6.52% | 1.80% | 2.07% | 0.55% | -2.80% | 0.65% | 7.31% | 3.51% |
TDG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TDG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TDG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TDG Distribution of Daily % Changes