Seasonality
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Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.91% | 1.98% | -11.20% | -0.74% | -6.40% | -1.44% | 6.67% | 2.91% | ||||
| 2025 | -4.48% | 12.80% | -0.69% | -5.49% | -6.85% | -9.44% | 1.31% | 3.63% | -9.53% | -3.38% | 6.38% | 1.41% |
| 2024 | 0.95% | 1.73% | 7.74% | -14.86% | -4.28% | -6.48% | 3.97% | 2.96% | 6.58% | -5.30% | 13.93% | -6.97% |
| 2023 | 2.06% | 1.16% | -2.08% | 15.09% | 3.98% | 7.16% | 5.97% | -8.41% | 0.16% | -9.15% | 7.26% | -0.54% |
| 2022 | 2.83% | 9.48% | 3.07% | 1.42% | 3.14% | -1.70% | 9.61% | -13.52% | -6.43% | 5.08% | 9.28% | -5.87% |
| 2021 | 11.00% | -11.38% | 15.07% | 7.43% | 6.13% | -7.94% | -8.94% | -2.08% | -2.42% | -4.94% | 0.79% | 5.11% |
| 2020 | -10.74% | -20.46% | 5.13% | -7.44% | -9.48% | 9.20% | 0.32% | -10.84% | 5.07% | 30.46% | -1.76% | |
| Avg | 2.54% | 0.72% | -1.22% | 1.14% | -1.67% | -4.19% | 3.97% | -2.85% | -3.75% | -2.10% | 11.35% | -1.44% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +11.4% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Jun shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Jun averages -4.2% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -19.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
TAP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
TAP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
TAP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
TAP Distribution of Daily % Changes