Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Oct shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Oct averages -3.4% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.3% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.6% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +0.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
STZ - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.32% | 0.74% | -4.98% | 5.08% | -11.34% | 0.19% | -5.63% | 6.87% | ||||
| 2025 | -18.19% | -2.35% | 4.57% | 2.75% | -4.93% | -8.76% | 3.28% | -3.05% | -16.84% | -1.68% | 3.81% | 1.16% |
| 2024 | 1.38% | 1.77% | 9.35% | -6.73% | -0.88% | 2.82% | -4.71% | -1.40% | 7.05% | -9.84% | 4.14% | -8.28% |
| 2023 | -0.10% | -3.04% | 0.98% | 1.58% | 6.30% | 1.30% | 10.84% | -4.17% | -3.54% | -6.84% | 3.10% | 0.52% |
| 2022 | -5.27% | -9.02% | 6.82% | 6.85% | 0.07% | -5.06% | 5.69% | 0.24% | -6.65% | 7.58% | 4.51% | -9.95% |
| 2021 | -3.71% | 1.86% | 6.47% | 5.40% | 0.07% | -2.43% | -4.08% | -5.56% | -0.21% | 2.90% | 4.29% | 11.38% |
| 2020 | -8.11% | -16.83% | 14.88% | 5.35% | 1.30% | 1.86% | 3.98% | 2.73% | -12.81% | 25.10% | 6.42% | |
| Avg | -1.93% | -2.59% | 0.91% | 4.26% | -0.77% | -1.52% | 1.03% | -1.66% | -2.91% | -3.45% | 7.49% | 0.21% |
STZ - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
STZ Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
STZ Distribution of Daily % Changes