Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +15.0% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.6% with only a 57% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +25.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +12.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +214.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
STX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.04% | 0.04% | -3.78% | 71.95% | 30.60% | 9.76% | -11.28% | 13.70% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.64% | 5.76% | -15.96% | 7.16% | 29.56% | 23.03% | 8.79% | 6.62% | 41.46% | 8.40% | 8.13% | -0.21% |
| 2024 | 0.36% | 8.60% | 0.82% | -7.67% | 8.53% | 11.49% | -1.07% | -2.56% | 10.77% | -8.36% | 0.96% | -14.19% |
| 2023 | 28.83% | -4.75% | 3.58% | -11.12% | 2.26% | 4.08% | 2.63% | 11.48% | -5.84% | 3.49% | 15.90% | 8.83% |
| 2022 | -5.16% | -3.72% | -12.20% | -8.74% | 3.21% | -14.79% | 11.95% | -16.28% | -19.60% | -6.71% | 6.67% | 0.70% |
| 2021 | 6.37% | 10.75% | 5.74% | 20.96% | 3.91% | -8.17% | -0.03% | -0.35% | -5.02% | 7.94% | 15.27% | 10.78% |
| 2020 | -15.86% | 3.42% | 2.36% | 6.19% | -7.55% | -6.59% | 6.13% | 4.07% | -2.94% | 22.98% | 6.80% | |
| Avg | 15.02% | 0.12% | -2.63% | 10.70% | 12.04% | 2.55% | 0.63% | 0.84% | 4.31% | 0.30% | 11.65% | 2.12% |
STX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
STX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
STX Distribution of Daily % Changes