Seasonality
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Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Oct averages +11.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -3.2% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +16.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +15.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +11.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
STLD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
STLD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
STLD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.97% | 7.55% | -6.51% | 27.03% | 13.77% | -11.60% | 9.50% | -7.42% | 0.72% | |||
| 2025 | 12.39% | 5.36% | -7.02% | 3.70% | -5.12% | 4.41% | -0.35% | 2.63% | 6.88% | 12.46% | 7.03% | 1.26% |
| 2024 | 2.19% | 10.88% | 11.12% | -12.22% | 2.88% | -2.91% | 2.87% | -10.29% | 5.88% | 3.51% | 11.32% | -21.16% |
| 2023 | 23.48% | 4.53% | -10.00% | -8.06% | -11.59% | 19.00% | -2.16% | 0.01% | 0.99% | -0.66% | 11.85% | -0.51% |
| 2022 | -10.55% | 27.13% | 18.69% | 2.78% | -0.43% | -22.13% | 17.73% | 3.65% | -11.69% | 32.56% | 10.51% | -5.67% |
| 2021 | -7.05% | 21.33% | 22.72% | 6.82% | 15.14% | -4.11% | 8.14% | 4.72% | -12.98% | 13.00% | -9.50% | 4.23% |
| 2020 | -10.88% | -14.30% | 7.68% | 9.44% | -0.79% | 5.06% | 7.70% | -2.20% | 9.95% | 15.03% | 2.53% | |
| Avg | 4.40% | 9.41% | 2.10% | 3.96% | 3.44% | -2.59% | 5.83% | 0.14% | -2.19% | 11.80% | 7.70% | -3.22% |
STLD Distribution of Daily % Changes