Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +7.6% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.2% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +3.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
SNA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.24% | 5.89% | -5.71% | 5.56% | -2.52% | 8.40% | 1.99% | -1.67% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.62% | -3.32% | -1.22% | -6.88% | 2.87% | -2.98% | 3.22% | 1.94% | 6.55% | -3.17% | 2.09% | 1.34% |
| 2024 | 0.38% | -4.27% | 7.46% | -9.54% | 2.52% | -4.20% | 9.81% | -0.48% | 2.10% | 13.95% | 12.66% | -8.17% |
| 2023 | 8.86% | 0.64% | -0.72% | 5.07% | -3.46% | 15.80% | -5.47% | -0.81% | -5.04% | 1.13% | 7.21% | 5.15% |
| 2022 | -3.31% | 1.60% | -2.24% | 3.41% | 5.11% | -11.20% | 13.71% | -2.16% | -7.58% | 10.28% | 9.11% | -5.03% |
| 2021 | 5.17% | 13.56% | 13.60% | 2.97% | 7.70% | -12.25% | -2.44% | 3.78% | -7.11% | -2.74% | 1.98% | 4.60% |
| 2020 | -8.71% | -24.82% | 19.73% | 0.36% | 6.80% | 5.31% | 2.37% | -0.77% | 7.07% | 12.44% | -2.68% | |
| Avg | 3.66% | 0.77% | -1.95% | 2.90% | 1.80% | 0.05% | 3.73% | 0.77% | -1.98% | 4.42% | 7.58% | -0.80% |
SNA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SNA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SNA Distribution of Daily % Changes