Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +32.0% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -6.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +32.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +27.8% historically, with January alone posting a 17% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -53.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
SMCI - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SMCI - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SMCI Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.55% | 11.27% | -29.70% | 20.33% | 68.21% | -36.36% | -3.17% | 31.27% | 11.16% | |||
| 2025 | -6.43% | 45.37% | -17.41% | -6.95% | 25.61% | 22.46% | 20.32% | -29.56% | 15.41% | 8.39% | -34.85% | -13.53% |
| 2024 | 86.31% | 63.54% | 16.62% | -14.97% | -8.65% | 4.44% | -14.37% | -37.62% | -4.87% | -30.09% | 12.13% | -6.62% |
| 2023 | -11.90% | 35.45% | 8.76% | -1.05% | 112.42% | 11.30% | 32.51% | -16.71% | -0.31% | -12.67% | 14.20% | 3.95% |
| 2022 | -7.80% | -3.04% | -3.11% | 10.59% | 18.91% | -19.40% | 33.85% | 20.50% | -15.38% | 26.37% | 29.66% | -9.01% |
| 2021 | -2.08% | 5.26% | 19.71% | -5.22% | -6.16% | 1.27% | 8.13% | -3.94% | 0.08% | -3.23% | 16.98% | 6.16% |
| 2020 | -9.23% | -16.15% | 7.61% | 13.36% | 9.36% | 6.76% | -9.63% | -3.61% | -13.94% | 24.16% | 12.23% | |
| Avg | 9.59% | 21.23% | -3.04% | 1.48% | 31.96% | -0.99% | 12.01% | -6.53% | -1.45% | -4.20% | 10.38% | -1.14% |
SMCI Distribution of Daily % Changes