Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.8% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.3% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +4.7% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +29.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
SJM - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.21% | 11.68% | -16.83% | 1.65% | 6.44% | 9.01% | 6.01% | 2.74% | ||||
| 2025 | -2.93% | 4.48% | 7.13% | -1.81% | -2.21% | -12.80% | 9.31% | 3.98% | -1.73% | -4.65% | 1.62% | -6.11% |
| 2024 | 4.09% | -7.87% | 4.74% | -8.76% | -1.89% | -2.33% | 8.17% | -1.89% | 5.60% | -6.27% | 4.79% | -6.51% |
| 2023 | -3.57% | -2.55% | 6.41% | -1.88% | -4.45% | 0.74% | 2.02% | -3.07% | -15.21% | -7.38% | -2.69% | 15.17% |
| 2022 | 3.50% | -3.45% | 0.49% | 1.12% | -7.81% | 2.11% | 3.37% | 6.61% | -1.84% | 9.64% | 2.92% | 2.89% |
| 2021 | 0.70% | -3.03% | 12.97% | 3.52% | 2.44% | -2.79% | 1.19% | -4.96% | -2.94% | 2.36% | 3.74% | 7.39% |
| 2020 | 0.21% | 7.78% | 3.52% | -0.11% | -7.13% | 3.35% | 10.77% | -3.88% | -2.87% | 5.25% | -1.37% | |
| Avg | 1.50% | -0.08% | 3.24% | -0.37% | -1.08% | -1.88% | 4.77% | 1.91% | -3.33% | -1.53% | 2.61% | 1.91% |
SJM - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SJM Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SJM Distribution of Daily % Changes