Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +22.4% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -6.4% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +23.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 182 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
SHOP - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SHOP - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SHOP Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.48% | -8.00% | -1.75% | 2.12% | -2.00% | -3.82% | 2.60% | 25.80% | -3.41% | |||
| 2025 | 9.85% | -4.11% | -14.75% | -0.50% | 12.86% | 7.58% | 5.95% | 15.60% | 5.19% | 16.99% | -8.75% | 1.47% |
| 2024 | 2.79% | -4.62% | 1.05% | -9.03% | -15.74% | 11.67% | -7.34% | 21.03% | 8.19% | -2.41% | 47.81% | -8.02% |
| 2023 | 41.95% | -16.50% | 16.53% | 1.06% | 18.04% | 12.96% | 4.61% | -1.61% | -17.93% | -13.52% | 54.31% | 6.98% |
| 2022 | -30.00% | -28.00% | -2.64% | -36.86% | -12.11% | -16.72% | 11.49% | -9.13% | -14.88% | 27.06% | 19.43% | -15.09% |
| 2021 | -2.95% | 16.60% | -13.62% | 6.87% | 5.10% | 17.55% | 2.67% | 1.66% | -11.08% | 8.18% | 3.75% | -9.49% |
| 2020 | -0.50% | -10.01% | 51.65% | 19.85% | 25.26% | 7.88% | 4.14% | -4.07% | -9.54% | 17.82% | 3.81% | |
| Avg | 0.53% | -6.45% | -3.60% | 2.19% | 3.72% | 7.78% | 3.98% | 8.21% | -5.76% | 4.46% | 22.40% | -3.39% |
SHOP Distribution of Daily % Changes