Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.6% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.6% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +19.9% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.01% | -8.08% | -1.28% | -2.49% | -4.34% | 5.63% | 14.06% | 5.87% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.77% | -3.54% | -1.57% | 3.99% | 8.87% | 3.28% | 7.11% | -1.66% | -0.39% | -1.00% | -1.62% | 7.74% |
| 2024 | -8.55% | 6.56% | 8.33% | 2.23% | -0.58% | 0.56% | -11.53% | 0.26% | -0.45% | 9.29% | 17.24% | -10.57% |
| 2023 | -7.01% | 0.96% | -32.78% | -0.27% | 1.39% | 7.57% | 16.62% | -10.17% | -7.19% | -5.21% | 18.37% | 12.20% |
| 2022 | 4.28% | -3.49% | -0.18% | -21.33% | 6.01% | -9.87% | 9.29% | 3.08% | 1.30% | 10.85% | 3.89% | 0.87% |
| 2021 | -2.83% | 20.14% | 5.61% | 8.01% | 5.17% | -1.41% | -6.67% | 7.47% | -0.01% | 12.62% | -5.45% | 8.67% |
| 2020 | -10.20% | -17.50% | 12.20% | -4.30% | -6.04% | -1.75% | 7.75% | 1.97% | 13.47% | 19.12% | 8.73% | |
| Avg | 0.28% | 0.34% | -5.62% | 0.33% | 1.75% | -0.04% | 3.87% | 1.12% | -0.79% | 6.67% | 8.59% | 4.61% |
SCHW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
SCHW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SCHW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SCHW Distribution of Daily % Changes