Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +9.7% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.9% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +8.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +37.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
SBUX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.19% | 7.29% | -8.60% | 17.57% | -5.31% | 3.06% | 2.99% | 2.91% | ||||
| 2025 | 18.01% | 8.13% | -15.30% | -18.39% | 5.61% | 9.15% | -2.70% | -0.44% | -4.07% | -4.41% | 8.49% | -3.33% |
| 2024 | -3.10% | 2.62% | -3.70% | -3.17% | -8.66% | -2.95% | 0.13% | 22.05% | 3.09% | 0.22% | 5.52% | -10.94% |
| 2023 | 10.02% | -5.99% | 2.00% | 9.76% | -14.14% | 1.45% | 2.53% | -3.55% | -6.33% | 1.06% | 8.25% | -3.31% |
| 2022 | -15.94% | -6.17% | -0.89% | -17.95% | 5.91% | -2.69% | 10.98% | -0.27% | 0.23% | 2.77% | 18.71% | -2.94% |
| 2021 | -9.51% | 12.06% | 1.15% | 4.78% | -0.14% | -1.82% | 8.60% | -2.87% | -6.11% | -3.84% | 3.81% | 6.69% |
| 2020 | -7.11% | -16.18% | 16.72% | 2.22% | -5.64% | 4.00% | 10.98% | 1.72% | 1.21% | 13.25% | 9.14% | |
| Avg | 1.44% | 1.55% | -5.93% | 1.33% | -2.07% | 0.08% | 3.79% | 4.32% | -1.91% | -0.50% | 9.67% | -0.78% |
SBUX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
SBUX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
SBUX Distribution of Daily % Changes