Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +8.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Aug shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Aug averages -3.9% with only a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +6.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.7% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -11.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.24% | -0.56% | -12.40% | -4.75% | -10.60% | 2.26% | 8.26% | 6.39% | ||||
| 2025 | 3.28% | -0.90% | -4.14% | 5.69% | 3.69% | 5.40% | 5.40% | 1.16% | -0.28% | -9.81% | 3.87% | -5.85% |
| 2024 | 10.57% | -8.43% | 13.99% | 8.06% | -3.37% | -7.23% | 11.40% | 15.17% | -0.37% | -0.68% | 2.92% | -8.16% |
| 2023 | 9.72% | -6.55% | 2.81% | 10.03% | -12.35% | 3.66% | 1.76% | -28.04% | -7.34% | -4.50% | 12.05% | 9.06% |
| 2022 | -12.24% | 8.13% | -1.72% | -17.54% | 1.96% | 3.03% | 14.74% | -8.39% | -0.74% | 2.47% | 3.12% | -9.59% |
| 2021 | -5.17% | -4.17% | 0.64% | -3.12% | 9.73% | 19.76% | 10.25% | 7.05% | -9.29% | -0.24% | -2.91% | 2.21% |
| 2020 | 0.22% | -7.34% | 5.45% | 3.78% | 19.39% | 5.47% | -10.54% | -5.17% | 11.96% | 9.39% | 1.41% | |
| Avg | 2.23% | -1.75% | -1.16% | 0.55% | -1.02% | 6.61% | 8.19% | -3.93% | -3.87% | -0.13% | 4.74% | -1.82% |
RMD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RMD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RMD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RMD Distribution of Daily % Changes