Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +14.7% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -9.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +23.0% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +2.2% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.8% vs the historical average for the same point.
RL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.06% | 2.60% | -4.87% | 4.26% | 1.47% | 10.58% | -5.25% | -8.79% | -2.72% | |||
| 2025 | 8.10% | 8.59% | -18.29% | 1.91% | 23.05% | -0.58% | 8.92% | -0.61% | 5.92% | 1.95% | 14.91% | -3.49% |
| 2024 | -0.37% | 29.41% | 1.41% | -12.85% | 14.20% | -5.88% | 0.30% | -2.47% | 13.68% | 2.09% | 16.91% | 0.17% |
| 2023 | 17.20% | -4.57% | -0.65% | -1.61% | -7.39% | 16.70% | 6.51% | -11.19% | 0.19% | -3.07% | 14.97% | 12.03% |
| 2022 | -6.75% | 19.13% | -13.59% | -8.02% | -3.11% | -10.58% | 10.02% | -7.40% | -6.22% | 9.14% | 22.04% | -5.90% |
| 2021 | -2.59% | 15.86% | 5.19% | 8.23% | -6.91% | -4.50% | -3.64% | 2.30% | -3.80% | 14.53% | -8.75% | 3.06% |
| 2020 | -7.04% | -36.04% | 10.40% | 2.34% | -3.96% | -1.68% | -3.46% | -1.25% | -1.65% | 28.27% | 20.98% | |
| Avg | 2.59% | 9.14% | -9.55% | 0.33% | 3.38% | 0.25% | 2.17% | -4.52% | 1.42% | 3.83% | 14.73% | 4.48% |
RL Distribution of Daily % Changes