Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +6.8% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -5.8% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.63% | -7.71% | -5.42% | 9.75% | -9.42% | 6.01% | 16.17% | 2.74% | ||||
| 2025 | 8.82% | -8.20% | -10.19% | -0.99% | 7.25% | 4.35% | 9.33% | 1.38% | 1.86% | -7.80% | -1.34% | 2.59% |
| 2024 | -1.18% | 9.20% | 7.11% | -5.00% | 0.61% | 0.70% | -5.81% | 3.08% | 2.42% | 21.48% | 14.21% | -8.24% |
| 2023 | 5.54% | -3.82% | -13.61% | -2.94% | -0.20% | 15.32% | 6.07% | -4.98% | -3.58% | -4.97% | 10.17% | 6.46% |
| 2022 | 5.81% | 3.57% | 0.24% | -11.05% | 1.06% | -8.88% | 10.13% | 5.99% | -4.99% | 19.55% | -1.05% | -8.24% |
| 2021 | 4.88% | 16.82% | 5.32% | 6.71% | 1.38% | -1.73% | -0.32% | 8.05% | -0.78% | 6.84% | -0.30% | 2.15% |
| 2020 | -8.53% | -23.99% | 4.30% | 5.10% | -0.11% | 0.94% | 8.98% | -3.41% | 5.06% | 18.98% | 5.19% | |
| Avg | 4.58% | 0.19% | -5.79% | 0.11% | 0.83% | 2.24% | 5.22% | 3.75% | -1.41% | 6.69% | 6.78% | -0.02% |
RJF - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
RJF - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
RJF Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
RJF Distribution of Daily % Changes