Oct is the seasonally strongest month over 2Y.

Oct averages +35.9% with a 50% win rate across 2 years of history.

Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.

Mar averages -21.4% with only a 0% win rate across 2 years of history.

Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.

The three months of Q4 combine for a +57.9% average return historically.

Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.

Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -40.2% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.

2026 YTD is tracking below the 2Y seasonal average.

At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -45.9% vs the historical average for the same point.