Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +9.7% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.9% with only a 17% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +11.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -5.9% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -15.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.38% | 0.29% | -9.00% | -4.34% | 1.78% | -18.11% | 20.76% | 9.15% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.23% | -15.43% | -5.30% | 0.01% | 8.61% | 2.39% | 24.64% | -0.61% | -4.91% | -2.21% | -11.64% | -0.70% |
| 2024 | 3.25% | 1.31% | 3.24% | -6.09% | -0.68% | 3.08% | -2.10% | 0.70% | 0.88% | 2.58% | 7.95% | -8.09% |
| 2023 | 12.36% | -7.08% | 2.31% | -1.90% | 6.84% | 5.88% | 2.47% | 0.93% | -3.73% | -0.89% | 12.06% | 11.18% |
| 2022 | -4.04% | -4.28% | -3.20% | 6.02% | 2.03% | -8.74% | 16.02% | -6.88% | -8.96% | 12.65% | 7.96% | -5.64% |
| 2021 | 11.12% | 3.03% | 0.52% | -4.87% | 2.44% | 5.31% | -4.11% | -2.80% | -9.02% | 6.31% | -13.95% | 10.56% |
| 2020 | -9.11% | -18.98% | 13.14% | 10.30% | 1.85% | 9.99% | 6.84% | -9.51% | 1.40% | 28.58% | 10.90% | |
| Avg | 2.92% | -4.47% | -4.35% | 0.28% | 4.48% | -1.19% | 9.67% | -0.30% | -5.87% | 3.31% | 5.16% | 3.04% |
PTC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PTC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PTC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PTC Distribution of Daily % Changes