Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.6% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.8% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -7.3% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
PPG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PPG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PPG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.85% | 7.22% | -13.30% | 1.52% | 4.81% | 7.36% | -8.88% | 2.12% | -4.43% | |||
| 2025 | -3.41% | -1.30% | -3.42% | -0.45% | 2.42% | 2.66% | -7.25% | 6.14% | -5.50% | -7.00% | 3.10% | 2.42% |
| 2024 | -5.69% | 0.86% | 2.33% | -10.97% | 2.37% | -4.20% | 0.87% | 2.75% | 2.10% | -6.00% | 0.43% | -3.96% |
| 2023 | 3.66% | 1.80% | 1.15% | 5.00% | -5.97% | 12.96% | -2.97% | -1.04% | -8.44% | -5.42% | 16.24% | 5.32% |
| 2022 | -9.42% | -14.23% | -1.78% | -2.35% | -0.72% | -9.61% | 13.08% | -1.31% | -12.83% | 3.15% | 19.06% | -7.01% |
| 2021 | -6.59% | 0.48% | 11.45% | 13.96% | 5.27% | -5.54% | -3.68% | -2.08% | -10.37% | 12.28% | -3.64% | 11.85% |
| 2020 | -12.47% | -19.96% | 8.65% | 12.57% | 4.32% | 1.50% | 12.39% | 1.40% | 6.26% | 13.59% | -1.74% | |
| Avg | -1.43% | -2.52% | -3.36% | 2.19% | 2.96% | 1.14% | -1.05% | 2.71% | -5.61% | 0.55% | 8.13% | 1.15% |
PPG Distribution of Daily % Changes