Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +35.6% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Dec shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Dec averages -5.9% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +35.8% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +9.6% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -33.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.53% | -6.41% | 6.63% | -4.90% | 12.53% | -25.47% | 5.48% | 41.43% | ||||
| 2025 | 9.07% | 2.95% | -0.61% | 40.33% | 11.26% | 3.45% | 16.16% | -1.04% | 16.41% | 9.89% | -15.97% | 5.52% |
| 2024 | -6.29% | 55.87% | -8.25% | -4.52% | -1.32% | 16.84% | 6.16% | 17.07% | 18.17% | 11.72% | 61.41% | 12.75% |
| 2023 | 21.18% | 0.77% | 7.78% | -8.28% | 89.81% | 4.21% | 29.42% | -24.50% | 6.81% | -7.50% | 35.47% | -14.36% |
| 2022 | -24.71% | -13.57% | 15.87% | -24.25% | -16.54% | 4.49% | 14.11% | -25.41% | 5.31% | 8.12% | -14.68% | -14.40% |
| 2021 | 49.38% | -32.06% | -2.55% | -1.07% | -0.39% | 14.86% | -17.64% | 21.33% | -8.73% | 7.65% | -20.21% | -11.82% |
| 2020 | 6.63% | 167.62% | -13.13% | |||||||||
| Avg | 5.18% | 1.26% | 3.14% | -0.45% | 15.89% | 3.06% | 8.95% | -2.51% | 7.59% | 6.09% | 35.61% | -5.91% |
PLTR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PLTR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PLTR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PLTR Distribution of Daily % Changes