Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +12.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -6.5% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.4% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +1.5% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.3% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.47% | 8.04% | -11.29% | 1.58% | -6.91% | 15.80% | -0.16% | 8.12% | ||||
| 2025 | 11.17% | -5.23% | -9.07% | -0.46% | 10.17% | 5.08% | 4.79% | 3.75% | 0.08% | 1.94% | 11.74% | 2.00% |
| 2024 | 0.82% | 15.61% | 3.80% | -1.96% | -2.17% | -4.84% | 10.94% | 7.25% | 5.27% | 0.36% | 11.12% | -9.51% |
| 2023 | 12.03% | 8.34% | -4.47% | -3.34% | -0.92% | 21.72% | 5.12% | 2.06% | -6.57% | -5.29% | 17.84% | 6.35% |
| 2022 | -2.55% | -4.08% | -4.26% | -4.56% | 1.01% | -9.60% | 17.49% | -7.91% | -8.56% | 19.94% | 3.34% | -2.66% |
| 2021 | -2.86% | 8.79% | 9.92% | -0.51% | -1.48% | -0.34% | 1.60% | -4.60% | -5.75% | 6.07% | 2.16% | 5.32% |
| 2020 | -5.18% | -29.79% | 21.88% | 14.48% | 1.83% | -2.37% | 15.63% | -1.78% | 2.98% | 28.79% | 1.93% | |
| Avg | 4.18% | 3.75% | -6.45% | 1.81% | 2.02% | 4.24% | 5.34% | 2.70% | -2.89% | 4.33% | 12.50% | 0.57% |
PH - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PH - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PH Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PH Distribution of Daily % Changes