Seasonality
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Aug is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Aug averages +6.5% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -1.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q1 (Jan–Feb–Mar) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q1 combine for a +8.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +8.3% historically, with January alone posting a 67% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is -16.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.86% | 2.72% | -7.22% | 1.59% | -5.41% | 14.73% | -3.18% | -0.86% | ||||
| 2025 | 4.83% | 14.43% | 0.36% | -0.41% | 1.13% | -6.34% | -9.27% | 2.07% | -0.04% | -16.55% | 11.06% | -0.47% |
| 2024 | 12.47% | 6.34% | 9.11% | 0.74% | 1.41% | -1.64% | 3.13% | 17.78% | 0.62% | -4.27% | 10.73% | -10.89% |
| 2023 | 5.20% | 5.26% | -0.32% | -4.59% | -6.22% | 3.49% | -4.75% | 5.95% | 4.37% | 13.57% | 3.76% | -2.90% |
| 2022 | 5.96% | -2.51% | 7.61% | -5.73% | 11.20% | -2.61% | -0.96% | 6.60% | -5.25% | 10.58% | 2.92% | -1.85% |
| 2021 | -7.52% | -1.42% | 11.24% | 5.47% | -1.65% | -0.88% | -3.01% | 1.24% | -6.18% | 5.08% | -2.04% | 12.08% |
| 2020 | -9.33% | 0.93% | 4.82% | 0.49% | 3.13% | 12.91% | 5.20% | -0.39% | -2.82% | -5.21% | 13.51% | |
| Avg | 3.01% | 2.21% | 3.10% | 0.27% | 0.14% | 1.41% | -0.73% | 6.47% | -1.15% | 0.93% | 3.54% | 1.58% |
PGR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PGR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PGR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PGR Distribution of Daily % Changes