Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +3.8% with a 83% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -2.8% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +5.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -0.5% historically, with January alone posting a 33% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +6.4% vs the historical average for the same point.
PG - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PG - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PG Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.66% | 10.17% | -13.61% | 2.60% | -2.40% | 2.15% | -0.73% | 0.44% | 1.56% | |||
| 2025 | -0.39% | 4.73% | -1.97% | -4.01% | 4.50% | -6.22% | -4.91% | 4.37% | -2.16% | -1.45% | -1.47% | -3.27% |
| 2024 | 7.91% | 1.15% | 2.08% | 1.24% | 0.82% | 0.23% | -1.94% | 6.71% | 0.97% | -4.07% | 8.52% | -6.48% |
| 2023 | -5.47% | -3.39% | 8.09% | 5.83% | -8.88% | 6.48% | 3.65% | -1.25% | -5.49% | 3.51% | 2.33% | -4.55% |
| 2022 | -1.38% | -2.84% | -1.98% | 5.66% | -7.89% | -2.77% | -2.77% | -0.70% | -8.47% | 7.43% | 10.76% | 1.61% |
| 2021 | -7.30% | -3.65% | 9.63% | -0.85% | 1.07% | 0.06% | 6.07% | 0.11% | -1.82% | 2.92% | 1.11% | 13.14% |
| 2020 | -9.14% | -2.85% | 7.87% | -1.65% | 3.15% | 10.35% | 5.50% | 0.48% | -0.81% | 1.29% | 0.19% | |
| Avg | 0.00% | -0.43% | -0.09% | 2.62% | -2.06% | 0.44% | 1.39% | 2.17% | -2.75% | 1.25% | 3.76% | 0.11% |
PG Distribution of Daily % Changes