Seasonality
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Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +15.0% with a 50% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -8.8% with only a 29% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +17.4% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -9.9% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is -25.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
PDD - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PDD - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PDD Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10.88% | 2.65% | -1.49% | -2.25% | -15.46% | -9.66% | 16.10% | -5.15% | -5.71% | |||
| 2025 | 15.38% | 1.59% | 4.10% | -10.80% | -8.58% | 8.44% | 8.40% | 5.97% | 9.94% | 2.04% | -13.93% | -2.32% |
| 2024 | -13.29% | -1.84% | -6.66% | 7.68% | 19.65% | -11.24% | -3.05% | -25.43% | 40.27% | -10.55% | -19.93% | 0.45% |
| 2023 | 20.15% | -10.46% | -13.48% | -10.21% | -4.15% | 5.85% | 29.91% | 10.19% | -0.91% | 3.42% | 45.38% | -0.77% |
| 2022 | 2.64% | -13.34% | -22.66% | 7.43% | 16.85% | 22.74% | -20.70% | 45.48% | -12.23% | -12.38% | 49.63% | -0.60% |
| 2021 | -6.73% | 3.29% | -21.78% | 0.04% | -6.76% | 1.71% | -27.88% | 9.18% | -9.35% | -1.93% | -25.21% | -12.33% |
| 2020 | 1.59% | 0.70% | 31.67% | 40.96% | 28.37% | 6.94% | -3.12% | -16.63% | 21.35% | 54.27% | 28.00% | |
| Avg | 1.21% | -2.36% | -8.75% | 3.37% | 6.07% | 6.60% | 1.39% | 5.30% | 1.85% | 0.32% | 15.03% | 2.07% |
PDD Distribution of Daily % Changes