Seasonality
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Jan is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jan averages +7.2% with a 100% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -2.2% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +13.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +5.0% historically, with January alone posting a 100% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +13.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.24% | 2.85% | -8.40% | 2.86% | -6.81% | 8.83% | 10.46% | -1.16% | ||||
| 2025 | 6.59% | -2.98% | -9.20% | -7.35% | 4.39% | 1.29% | 3.89% | 1.57% | -1.66% | 0.08% | 7.50% | 5.20% |
| 2024 | 2.81% | 10.74% | 11.72% | -14.35% | 1.60% | -4.24% | -4.16% | -2.20% | 2.60% | 5.67% | 12.49% | -8.54% |
| 2023 | 10.45% | -0.58% | 1.39% | 2.04% | -7.60% | 21.62% | 2.96% | -4.15% | 3.32% | -2.93% | 11.60% | 9.94% |
| 2022 | 5.36% | -0.91% | -4.07% | -5.70% | 4.98% | -5.18% | 11.15% | -4.04% | -4.37% | 15.70% | 9.77% | -3.94% |
| 2021 | 5.73% | 0.08% | 2.12% | -3.27% | 2.23% | -2.52% | -7.01% | -0.93% | -3.60% | 13.56% | -6.56% | 7.63% |
| 2020 | -9.47% | -8.62% | 13.25% | 7.18% | 1.34% | 13.67% | 1.26% | -0.65% | 0.12% | 2.33% | -0.09% | |
| Avg | 7.19% | -0.04% | -2.15% | -1.79% | 0.85% | 3.02% | 4.42% | -1.42% | -0.73% | 5.37% | 6.19% | 1.70% |
PCAR - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PCAR - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PCAR Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PCAR Distribution of Daily % Changes