Seasonality
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Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +7.9% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.2% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +7.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.8% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +10.6% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.11% | -9.19% | -1.63% | 0.55% | 6.04% | 1.39% | 20.06% | 4.43% | ||||
| 2025 | 5.31% | 3.38% | 1.72% | -4.64% | 8.10% | -7.88% | -0.02% | -3.37% | -9.11% | -7.68% | -3.64% | 0.44% |
| 2024 | 2.20% | 1.47% | 0.15% | -3.25% | 1.96% | -1.33% | 7.98% | 3.31% | 2.28% | 3.83% | 5.68% | -4.14% |
| 2023 | 0.26% | -4.07% | 3.80% | -4.13% | -3.69% | 6.61% | 12.16% | -1.88% | -5.65% | -3.71% | 10.69% | -2.34% |
| 2022 | -13.22% | 1.10% | 14.62% | -7.14% | -1.64% | -8.04% | 12.65% | -3.27% | -9.02% | 5.44% | 5.56% | -6.83% |
| 2021 | -5.63% | 4.29% | 7.63% | -0.54% | 4.43% | 6.09% | 6.70% | 0.57% | -1.76% | 10.22% | -3.31% | 14.51% |
| 2020 | -9.67% | -18.79% | 8.90% | 6.55% | 4.80% | -4.24% | 6.33% | 4.32% | 3.89% | 13.25% | 0.03% | |
| Avg | -3.03% | -1.81% | 1.07% | -1.46% | 3.11% | 0.23% | 7.90% | 0.28% | -3.16% | 2.00% | 4.70% | 0.28% |
PAYX - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PAYX - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PAYX Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
PAYX Distribution of Daily % Changes