Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +12.9% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.1% with only a 43% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +26.5% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -1.1% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 181 of the year, the current YTD return is +97.0% vs the historical average for the same point.
PANW - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
PANW - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
PANW Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.93% | -15.85% | 7.66% | 11.85% | 57.09% | 21.06% | -2.69% | 15.16% | 2.92% | |||
| 2025 | 1.35% | 3.26% | -10.39% | 9.55% | 2.94% | 6.35% | -15.17% | 9.75% | 6.88% | 8.16% | -13.67% | -3.12% |
| 2024 | 14.80% | -8.26% | -8.51% | 2.38% | 1.38% | 14.95% | -4.21% | 11.70% | -5.77% | 5.42% | 7.63% | -6.16% |
| 2023 | 13.69% | 18.74% | 6.04% | -8.65% | 16.95% | 19.74% | -2.17% | -2.66% | -3.64% | 3.66% | 21.43% | -0.07% |
| 2022 | -7.07% | 14.85% | 4.76% | -9.84% | -10.42% | -1.76% | 1.04% | 11.56% | -11.75% | 4.76% | -0.98% | -17.87% |
| 2021 | -1.31% | 2.16% | -10.12% | 9.73% | 2.79% | 2.15% | 7.55% | 15.53% | 3.90% | 6.28% | 7.43% | 1.80% |
| 2020 | -21.36% | -11.19% | 19.85% | 19.72% | -2.38% | 11.43% | 0.58% | -4.92% | -9.63% | 32.88% | 20.91% | |
| Avg | 2.92% | -0.92% | -3.11% | 4.98% | 12.92% | 8.59% | -0.60% | 8.80% | -2.55% | 3.11% | 9.12% | -0.75% |
PANW Distribution of Daily % Changes