Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.4% with a 71% win rate across 5 years of history.
Mar shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Mar averages -3.8% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +18.1% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -3.0% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 187 of the year, the current YTD return is +74.1% vs the historical average for the same point.
P - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
P - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
P Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.78% | -7.65% | -8.07% | 21.02% | 11.28% | -0.91% | -2.06% | 20.45% | 31.12% | |||
| 2025 | 10.35% | -22.60% | -15.63% | 2.46% | 18.14% | 7.45% | 3.37% | 30.39% | 7.99% | 17.77% | -9.87% | -24.67% |
| 2024 | 12.14% | 31.66% | -1.25% | -3.06% | 19.62% | 6.50% | -6.67% | -14.42% | -2.05% | -0.38% | 5.87% | 15.93% |
| 2023 | 8.15% | -1.38% | -10.62% | -10.51% | 26.11% | 27.89% | 0.46% | -1.08% | -2.65% | -5.08% | -1.48% | 7.05% |
| 2022 | -18.62% | -2.08% | 36.12% | -17.02% | -19.01% | 8.34% | 10.27% | 2.19% | -5.52% | 12.75% | -5.41% | -8.32% |
| 2021 | 2.30% | 1.08% | -7.87% | -6.13% | -5.79% | 2.52% | -0.05% | 32.33% | -2.59% | 6.76% | 15.30% | 5.10% |
| 2020 | -14.27% | -19.40% | 17.07% | 22.29% | -1.59% | 3.06% | -14.56% | 0.85% | 4.61% | 13.48% | 23.75% | |
| Avg | 3.02% | -2.18% | -3.82% | 0.55% | 10.38% | 7.17% | 1.20% | 7.90% | 3.88% | 6.07% | 2.98% | 3.14% |
P Distribution of Daily % Changes