Seasonality
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May is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
May averages +10.8% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Feb shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Feb averages -2.9% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q2 (Apr–May–Jun) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q2 combine for a +16.6% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.0% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking below the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 172 of the year, the current YTD return is -38.5% vs the historical average for the same point.
ORCL - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15.34% | -11.65% | 1.18% | 10.09% | 39.90% | -35.09% | -11.07% | 14.82% | 8.39% | |||
| 2025 | 2.30% | -2.35% | -15.81% | 1.01% | 17.63% | 32.08% | 16.32% | -10.89% | 24.37% | -6.46% | -23.10% | -3.49% |
| 2024 | 6.36% | -0.02% | 12.47% | -9.15% | 3.02% | 20.49% | -0.96% | 1.32% | 20.60% | -1.28% | 10.13% | -9.85% |
| 2023 | 8.63% | -1.20% | 6.32% | 2.36% | 11.85% | 12.41% | -1.22% | 2.70% | -12.02% | -2.02% | 12.39% | -9.28% |
| 2022 | -6.59% | -6.39% | 8.90% | -10.93% | -2.02% | -2.85% | 11.91% | -4.74% | -17.64% | 28.49% | 6.35% | -1.55% |
| 2021 | -6.23% | 6.75% | 8.77% | 8.48% | 3.89% | -1.14% | 12.36% | 2.28% | -2.24% | 10.49% | -5.42% | -3.89% |
| 2020 | -5.70% | -2.28% | 10.12% | 1.51% | 2.79% | 0.75% | 3.19% | 4.33% | -5.63% | 2.87% | 12.08% | |
| Avg | -1.81% | -2.94% | 2.79% | 1.71% | 10.83% | 4.10% | 4.01% | 1.24% | 2.90% | 3.93% | 0.54% | -2.66% |
ORCL - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
ORCL Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
ORCL Distribution of Daily % Changes