Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.59% | 10.71% | -10.82% | 1.87% | -5.23% | 1.24% | 8.06% | 11.27% | ||||
| 2025 | 0.87% | -4.64% | 1.01% | -8.14% | -3.57% | -1.07% | 0.15% | 8.72% | 5.02% | -7.98% | -4.53% | 13.86% |
| 2024 | 4.47% | -2.20% | 10.30% | -4.05% | 0.13% | -2.76% | 9.30% | 2.44% | 3.65% | -2.31% | 3.78% | -17.26% |
| 2023 | 5.42% | 5.33% | 4.98% | -4.00% | -2.63% | 8.69% | -11.07% | -4.27% | -7.21% | 0.58% | 7.64% | 8.18% |
| 2022 | 2.85% | 11.32% | 2.13% | -10.31% | -2.00% | -13.90% | 9.79% | -4.21% | -4.71% | 15.31% | 9.64% | 3.20% |
| 2021 | 0.02% | 10.18% | 8.87% | 10.94% | -0.02% | -1.91% | -8.96% | 0.55% | -0.08% | -6.04% | -1.13% | 9.91% |
| 2020 | -8.01% | -19.97% | 3.88% | -3.93% | 0.78% | -1.59% | 0.67% | -7.36% | -4.65% | 33.47% | 0.03% | |
| Avg | 1.51% | 3.24% | -0.50% | -1.40% | -2.46% | -1.28% | 0.81% | 0.65% | -1.78% | -0.85% | 8.14% | 2.99% |
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.1% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
May shows persistent seasonal weakness.
May averages -2.5% with only a 14% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +10.3% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +4.2% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +2.9% vs the historical average for the same point.
OMC - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
OMC - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
OMC Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
OMC Distribution of Daily % Changes