Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
Jul is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Jul averages +4.1% with a 86% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -5.0% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +4.0% average return historically.
Q1 historically shows a slow seasonal start.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages -2.5% historically, with January alone posting a 50% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +9.7% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.98% | 9.99% | -8.28% | 5.45% | -4.19% | 1.55% | 3.52% | -1.77% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.81% | 4.88% | 2.20% | 0.21% | -1.69% | 2.23% | -2.11% | 5.19% | 3.93% | -3.75% | -0.17% | -1.69% |
| 2024 | -4.83% | -3.72% | 4.32% | -0.56% | -0.90% | 0.04% | 9.27% | 8.65% | 2.54% | -5.99% | -2.06% | -7.32% |
| 2023 | 7.33% | -5.35% | -0.58% | -0.35% | -5.00% | 1.02% | 2.40% | -7.67% | -10.42% | -4.60% | 14.43% | 6.88% |
| 2022 | -2.70% | -4.43% | 5.23% | 0.43% | -1.29% | 0.42% | 8.76% | -7.38% | -14.40% | 7.42% | 1.69% | 0.96% |
| 2021 | -4.63% | 2.42% | 5.76% | 9.27% | -0.74% | -2.09% | 5.67% | 3.08% | -9.87% | 10.13% | -1.20% | 5.77% |
| 2020 | -7.38% | -30.82% | 10.61% | 1.13% | 8.00% | 1.32% | 3.68% | -1.69% | -4.37% | 4.04% | 4.07% | |
| Avg | 1.16% | -0.51% | -3.17% | 3.58% | -1.81% | 1.60% | 4.12% | 0.92% | -4.98% | -0.19% | 2.79% | 1.45% |
O - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
O Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
O Distribution of Daily % Changes
O - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years