Seasonality
Sign in to unlock 10Y & 20Y views
NWSA - Average growth of $100 invested at start of year
5 years of data
Nov is the seasonally strongest month over 5Y.
Nov averages +8.9% with a 67% win rate across 5 years of history.
Sep shows persistent seasonal weakness.
Sep averages -3.1% with only a 33% win rate across 5 years of history.
Q4 (Oct–Nov–Dec) is the seasonally strongest quarter.
The three months of Q4 combine for a +9.1% average return historically.
January Effect: Q1 historically opens the year positively.
Q1 (Jan–Mar) averages +0.8% historically, with January alone posting a 83% win rate.
2026 YTD is tracking above the 5Y seasonal average.
At day 155 of the year, the current YTD return is +4.2% vs the historical average for the same point.
Monthly Returns Heatmap
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.48% | -10.14% | 3.06% | 5.58% | -0.84% | -4.87% | 10.99% | 5.81% | ||||
| 2025 | 2.11% | 1.78% | -4.54% | -0.37% | 4.13% | 5.24% | -1.35% | 0.31% | 4.78% | -13.71% | -3.09% | 1.71% |
| 2024 | 0.37% | 9.09% | -2.23% | -9.09% | 14.24% | 1.40% | 0.04% | 2.72% | -5.64% | 2.33% | 7.71% | -6.17% |
| 2023 | 11.32% | -15.35% | 1.35% | 1.97% | 3.98% | 6.50% | 1.64% | 8.43% | -6.21% | 3.09% | 6.58% | 11.39% |
| 2022 | -0.31% | 0.36% | -0.29% | -10.34% | -12.39% | -10.46% | 10.01% | -1.28% | -10.19% | 11.65% | 13.52% | -4.96% |
| 2021 | 7.96% | 20.88% | 8.86% | 3.03% | 3.02% | -4.52% | -4.42% | -8.77% | 5.20% | -2.68% | -5.59% | 3.19% |
| 2020 | -11.31% | -24.92% | 10.36% | 23.61% | -3.18% | 7.25% | 18.87% | -6.67% | -6.35% | 34.42% | 1.81% | |
| Avg | 4.15% | -0.67% | -2.67% | 0.16% | 5.11% | -1.41% | 3.45% | 3.38% | -3.12% | -0.94% | 8.92% | 1.16% |
NWSA - Average returns for the respective month in the last 5 years
NWSA Distribution of Daily Returns from 2021 to 2026
NWSA Distribution of Daily % Changes